"Each [failed forecast] involved historical discontinuity, and, in the early stages…unlikely outcomes. The basic problem was…situations in which trend continuity and precedent were of marginal, if not counterproductive value." – 1983 CIA Study of Significant Historical Forecasting Failures
New Global Macro Evidence and Forecasts
New Global Macro Evidence and Forecasts
New Global Macro Evidence and Forecasts
"Each [failed forecast] involved historical discontinuity, and, in the early stages…unlikely outcomes. The basic problem was…situations in which trend continuity and precedent were of marginal, if not counterproductive value." – 1983 CIA Study of Significant Historical Forecasting Failures